Idemitsu Kosan Co Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 10.65
| IDKOY Stock | USD 13.11 0.31 2.31% |
Idemitsu |
Idemitsu Kosan Target Price Odds to finish below 10.65
The tendency of Idemitsu Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.65 or more in 90 days |
| 13.11 | 90 days | 10.65 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Idemitsu Kosan to drop to $ 10.65 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Idemitsu Kosan Co probability density function shows the probability of Idemitsu Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Idemitsu Kosan price to stay between $ 10.65 and its current price of $13.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.64 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Idemitsu Kosan has a beta of 0.68. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Idemitsu Kosan average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Idemitsu Kosan Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Idemitsu Kosan Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Idemitsu Kosan Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Idemitsu Kosan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Idemitsu Kosan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Idemitsu Kosan Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Idemitsu Kosan is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Idemitsu Kosan's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Idemitsu Kosan Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Idemitsu Kosan within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Idemitsu Kosan Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Idemitsu Kosan for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Idemitsu Kosan can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Idemitsu Kosan generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Idemitsu Kosan has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Idemitsu Kosan Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Idemitsu Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Idemitsu Kosan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Idemitsu Kosan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 594.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 140.3 B |
Idemitsu Kosan Technical Analysis
Idemitsu Kosan's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Idemitsu Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Idemitsu Kosan Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Idemitsu Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Idemitsu Kosan Predictive Forecast Models
Idemitsu Kosan's time-series forecasting models is one of many Idemitsu Kosan's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Idemitsu Kosan's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Idemitsu Kosan
Checking the ongoing alerts about Idemitsu Kosan for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Idemitsu Kosan help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Idemitsu Kosan generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Idemitsu Kosan has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Additional Tools for Idemitsu Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Idemitsu Kosan's price analysis, check to measure Idemitsu Kosan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Idemitsu Kosan is operating at the current time. Most of Idemitsu Kosan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Idemitsu Kosan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Idemitsu Kosan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Idemitsu Kosan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.