Nextage Therapeutics (Israel) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 71.60
| MCTC Stock | ILA 73.30 1.60 2.14% |
Nextage |
Nextage Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 71.60
The tendency of Nextage Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 71.60 or more in 90 days |
| 73.30 | 90 days | 71.60 | about 62.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nextage Therapeutics to drop to 71.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.56 (This Nextage Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Nextage Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nextage Therapeutics price to stay between 71.60 and its current price of 73.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Nextage Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Nextage Therapeutics has an alpha of 0.4373, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nextage Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nextage Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nextage Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nextage Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nextage Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nextage Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nextage Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nextage Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Nextage Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nextage Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nextage Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nextage Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 0.0 in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Nextage Therapeutics until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Nextage Therapeutics' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Nextage Therapeutics sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Nextage to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Nextage Therapeutics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Nextage Therapeutics reported the revenue of 297 K. Net Loss for the year was (2.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 207 K. | |
| Nextage Therapeutics has accumulated about 358 K in cash with (5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.16. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Nextage Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nextage Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nextage Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nextage Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Float | 217.3 K |
Nextage Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Nextage Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nextage Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nextage Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nextage Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nextage Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Nextage Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Nextage Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nextage Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nextage Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nextage Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nextage Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nextage Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 0.0 in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Nextage Therapeutics until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Nextage Therapeutics' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Nextage Therapeutics sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Nextage to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Nextage Therapeutics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Nextage Therapeutics reported the revenue of 297 K. Net Loss for the year was (2.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 207 K. | |
| Nextage Therapeutics has accumulated about 358 K in cash with (5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.16. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Nextage Stock
Nextage Therapeutics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nextage Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nextage with respect to the benefits of owning Nextage Therapeutics security.