Manila Electric (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 297.57
| MER Stock | 470.00 4.00 0.84% |
Manila |
Manila Electric Target Price Odds to finish below 297.57
The tendency of Manila Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 297.57 or more in 90 days |
| 470.00 | 90 days | 297.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Manila Electric to drop to 297.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Manila Electric Co probability density function shows the probability of Manila Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Manila Electric price to stay between 297.57 and its current price of 470.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Manila Electric Co has a beta of -0.32. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Manila Electric are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Manila Electric Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Manila Electric Co has an alpha of 0.2462, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Manila Electric Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Manila Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manila Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Manila Electric Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Manila Electric is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Manila Electric's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Manila Electric Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Manila Electric within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Manila Electric Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Manila Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Manila Electric's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Manila Electric's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 13.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 72.8 B |
Manila Electric Technical Analysis
Manila Electric's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Manila Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Manila Electric Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Manila Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Manila Electric Predictive Forecast Models
Manila Electric's time-series forecasting models is one of many Manila Electric's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Manila Electric's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Manila Electric in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Manila Electric's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Manila Electric options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Manila Stock
Manila Electric financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manila Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manila with respect to the benefits of owning Manila Electric security.