Magazine Luiza Sa Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 5.60
| MGLUY Stock | USD 5.60 1.10 16.42% |
Magazine |
Magazine Luiza Target Price Odds to finish over 5.60
The tendency of Magazine Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 5.60 | 90 days | 5.60 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magazine Luiza to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Magazine Luiza SA probability density function shows the probability of Magazine Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Magazine Luiza SA has a beta of -0.17. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Magazine Luiza are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Magazine Luiza SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Magazine Luiza SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Magazine Luiza Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Magazine Luiza
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magazine Luiza SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magazine Luiza's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Magazine Luiza Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magazine Luiza is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magazine Luiza's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magazine Luiza SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magazine Luiza within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.65 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Magazine Luiza Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magazine Luiza for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magazine Luiza SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Magazine Luiza SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has accumulated about 1.92 B in cash with (4.36 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.15. |
Magazine Luiza Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magazine Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magazine Luiza's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magazine Luiza's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.7 B |
Magazine Luiza Technical Analysis
Magazine Luiza's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magazine Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magazine Luiza SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magazine Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Magazine Luiza Predictive Forecast Models
Magazine Luiza's time-series forecasting models is one of many Magazine Luiza's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Magazine Luiza's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Magazine Luiza SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Magazine Luiza for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magazine Luiza SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Magazine Luiza SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Magazine Luiza SA has accumulated about 1.92 B in cash with (4.36 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.15. |
Additional Tools for Magazine Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Magazine Luiza's price analysis, check to measure Magazine Luiza's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magazine Luiza is operating at the current time. Most of Magazine Luiza's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magazine Luiza's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magazine Luiza's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magazine Luiza to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.