Mgp Ingredients Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 50.78
| MGPI Stock | USD 39.49 0.78 1.94% |
MGP |
MGP Ingredients Target Price Odds to finish below 50.78
The tendency of MGP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 50.78 after 90 days |
| 39.49 | 90 days | 50.78 | about 35.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MGP Ingredients to stay under $ 50.78 after 90 days from now is about 35.31 (This MGP Ingredients probability density function shows the probability of MGP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MGP Ingredients price to stay between its current price of $ 39.49 and $ 50.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.2 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days MGP Ingredients has a beta of 0.61. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MGP Ingredients average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MGP Ingredients will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MGP Ingredients has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MGP Ingredients Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MGP Ingredients
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGP Ingredients. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MGP Ingredients Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MGP Ingredients is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MGP Ingredients' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MGP Ingredients, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MGP Ingredients within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
MGP Ingredients Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MGP Ingredients for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MGP Ingredients can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MGP Ingredients generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MGP Ingredients has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 29th of November 2024 MGP Ingredients paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MGPI Investor Alert Kessler Topaz Meltzer Check, LLP Urges MGP Ingredients, Inc. ... |
MGP Ingredients Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MGP Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MGP Ingredients' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGP Ingredients' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.4 M |
MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis
MGP Ingredients' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MGP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MGP Ingredients. In general, you should focus on analyzing MGP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MGP Ingredients Predictive Forecast Models
MGP Ingredients' time-series forecasting models is one of many MGP Ingredients' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MGP Ingredients' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MGP Ingredients
Checking the ongoing alerts about MGP Ingredients for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MGP Ingredients help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MGP Ingredients generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MGP Ingredients has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 29th of November 2024 MGP Ingredients paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MGPI Investor Alert Kessler Topaz Meltzer Check, LLP Urges MGP Ingredients, Inc. ... |
Check out MGP Ingredients Backtesting, MGP Ingredients Valuation, MGP Ingredients Correlation, MGP Ingredients Hype Analysis, MGP Ingredients Volatility, MGP Ingredients History as well as MGP Ingredients Performance. For more detail on how to invest in MGP Stock please use our How to Invest in MGP Ingredients guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Distillers & Vintners space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGP Ingredients. If investors know MGP will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MGP Ingredients listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.845 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 4.82 | Revenue Per Share 33.38 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.24) |
The market value of MGP Ingredients is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGP Ingredients' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGP Ingredients' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MGP Ingredients' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGP Ingredients' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MGP Ingredients' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MGP Ingredients is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MGP Ingredients' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.