Navarre Minerals (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under -1.27
| NML Stock | 0.14 0.01 7.69% |
Navarre |
Navarre Minerals Target Price Odds to finish below -1.27
The tendency of Navarre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to (1.27) or more in 90 days |
| 0.14 | 90 days | (1.27) | about 19.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Navarre Minerals to drop to (1.27) or more in 90 days from now is about 19.9 (This Navarre Minerals probability density function shows the probability of Navarre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Navarre Minerals price to stay between (1.27) and its current price of 0.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Navarre Minerals has a beta of -787.64. This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Navarre Minerals are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Navarre Minerals is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Navarre Minerals has an alpha of 773.5, implying that it can generate a 773.5 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Navarre Minerals Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Navarre Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navarre Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Navarre Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Navarre Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Navarre Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Navarre Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Navarre Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 773.50 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -787.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Navarre Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Navarre Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Navarre Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Navarre Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Navarre Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Navarre Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 98.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.87 M. | |
| Navarre Minerals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Navarre Minerals Limited Announces High-Grade Gold and Silver from Drilling at St Arnaud Gold Project - Marketscreener.com |
Navarre Minerals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Navarre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Navarre Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Navarre Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 674.4 K |
Navarre Minerals Technical Analysis
Navarre Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Navarre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Navarre Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Navarre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Navarre Minerals Predictive Forecast Models
Navarre Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Navarre Minerals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Navarre Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Navarre Minerals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Navarre Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Navarre Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Navarre Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Navarre Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Navarre Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 98.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.87 M. | |
| Navarre Minerals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Navarre Minerals Limited Announces High-Grade Gold and Silver from Drilling at St Arnaud Gold Project - Marketscreener.com |
Additional Tools for Navarre Stock Analysis
When running Navarre Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Navarre Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Navarre Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Navarre Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Navarre Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Navarre Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Navarre Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.