Novina SA (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.07
| NOV Stock | 1.08 0.01 0.93% |
Novina |
Novina SA Target Price Odds to finish below 1.07
The tendency of Novina Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1.07 or more in 90 days |
| 1.08 | 90 days | 1.07 | about 5.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novina SA to drop to 1.07 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.28 (This Novina SA probability density function shows the probability of Novina Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novina SA price to stay between 1.07 and its current price of 1.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.79 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Novina SA has a beta of -0.0454. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Novina SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Novina SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Novina SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Novina SA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Novina SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novina SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novina SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novina SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novina SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novina SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novina SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novina SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Novina SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novina SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novina SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novina SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novina SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock |
Novina SA Technical Analysis
Novina SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novina Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novina SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novina Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novina SA Predictive Forecast Models
Novina SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novina SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novina SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novina SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novina SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novina SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novina SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novina SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock |
Additional Tools for Novina Stock Analysis
When running Novina SA's price analysis, check to measure Novina SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novina SA is operating at the current time. Most of Novina SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novina SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novina SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novina SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.