Nova Organic (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.95
| NV Stock | 0.95 0.03 3.06% |
Nova |
Nova Organic Target Price Odds to finish below 0.95
The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 0.95 | 90 days | 0.95 | about 12.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova Organic to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 12.36 (This Nova Organic PCL probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Nova Organic has a beta of 0.22. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Nova Organic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nova Organic PCL will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nova Organic PCL has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Nova Organic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nova Organic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Organic PCL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nova Organic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova Organic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova Organic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Organic PCL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova Organic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Nova Organic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova Organic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Organic PCL can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Organic PCL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Nova Organic PCL has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Nova Organic PCL has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Nova Organic PCL has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Organic generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Nova Organic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nova Organic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nova Organic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 600 M |
Nova Organic Technical Analysis
Nova Organic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nova Organic PCL. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nova Organic Predictive Forecast Models
Nova Organic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nova Organic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nova Organic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nova Organic PCL
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova Organic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Organic PCL help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nova Organic PCL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Nova Organic PCL has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Nova Organic PCL has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Nova Organic PCL has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Organic generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Nova Stock
Nova Organic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nova Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nova with respect to the benefits of owning Nova Organic security.