Bank Polska (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 164.15
| PEO Stock | 138.75 0.90 0.64% |
Bank |
Bank Polska Target Price Odds to finish below 164.15
The tendency of Bank Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 164.15 after 90 days |
| 138.75 | 90 days | 164.15 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bank Polska to stay under 164.15 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Bank Polska Kasa probability density function shows the probability of Bank Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bank Polska Kasa price to stay between its current price of 138.75 and 164.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bank Polska Kasa has a beta of -0.78 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bank Polska are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bank Polska Kasa is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bank Polska Kasa has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bank Polska Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Bank Polska
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Polska Kasa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank Polska's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bank Polska Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bank Polska is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bank Polska's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bank Polska Kasa, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bank Polska within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Bank Polska Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bank Polska for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bank Polska Kasa can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bank Polska Kasa generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Bank Polska Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bank Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bank Polska's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bank Polska's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 262.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.7 B |
Bank Polska Technical Analysis
Bank Polska's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bank Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bank Polska Kasa. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bank Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bank Polska Predictive Forecast Models
Bank Polska's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bank Polska's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bank Polska's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bank Polska Kasa
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bank Polska for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bank Polska Kasa help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bank Polska Kasa generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Bank Stock Analysis
When running Bank Polska's price analysis, check to measure Bank Polska's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank Polska is operating at the current time. Most of Bank Polska's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank Polska's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank Polska's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank Polska to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.