Rlj Lodging Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.98
| RLJ Stock | USD 10.36 0.13 1.24% |
RLJ |
RLJ Lodging Target Price Odds to finish over 11.98
The tendency of RLJ Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.98 or more in 90 days |
| 10.36 | 90 days | 11.98 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of RLJ Lodging to move over $ 11.98 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This RLJ Lodging Trust probability density function shows the probability of RLJ Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of RLJ Lodging Trust price to stay between its current price of $ 10.36 and $ 11.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.09 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.12 indicating RLJ Lodging Trust market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, RLJ Lodging is expected to follow. Additionally RLJ Lodging Trust has an alpha of 0.1385, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). RLJ Lodging Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for RLJ Lodging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RLJ Lodging Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RLJ Lodging Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. RLJ Lodging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the RLJ Lodging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold RLJ Lodging Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of RLJ Lodging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
RLJ Lodging Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of RLJ Lodging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for RLJ Lodging Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| RLJ Lodging Trust has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: RLJ Lodging Trust Announces Dividends for Fourth Quarter of 2024 |
RLJ Lodging Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of RLJ Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential RLJ Lodging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLJ Lodging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 516.7 M |
RLJ Lodging Technical Analysis
RLJ Lodging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. RLJ Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of RLJ Lodging Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing RLJ Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
RLJ Lodging Predictive Forecast Models
RLJ Lodging's time-series forecasting models is one of many RLJ Lodging's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary RLJ Lodging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about RLJ Lodging Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about RLJ Lodging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for RLJ Lodging Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| RLJ Lodging Trust has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: RLJ Lodging Trust Announces Dividends for Fourth Quarter of 2024 |
Check out RLJ Lodging Backtesting, RLJ Lodging Valuation, RLJ Lodging Correlation, RLJ Lodging Hype Analysis, RLJ Lodging Volatility, RLJ Lodging History as well as RLJ Lodging Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Hotel & Resort REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RLJ Lodging. If investors know RLJ will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RLJ Lodging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | Dividend Share 0.45 | Earnings Share 0.29 | Revenue Per Share 8.871 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.034 |
The market value of RLJ Lodging Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RLJ that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RLJ Lodging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RLJ Lodging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RLJ Lodging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RLJ Lodging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RLJ Lodging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RLJ Lodging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RLJ Lodging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.