Telecomunicaes Brasileiras (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.41
| TELB3 Stock | BRL 12.91 0.57 4.62% |
Telecomunicaes |
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Target Price Odds to finish below 12.41
The tendency of Telecomunicaes Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 12.41 or more in 90 days |
| 12.91 | 90 days | 12.41 | about 6.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras to drop to R$ 12.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.54 (This Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA probability density function shows the probability of Telecomunicaes Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras price to stay between R$ 12.41 and its current price of R$12.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA has a beta of -0.0126. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Telecomunicaes Brasileiras are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Telecomunicaes Brasileiras
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telecomunicaes Brasileiras. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Telecomunicaes Brasileiras is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Telecomunicaes Brasileiras can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 285.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (126.82 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (224.27 M). | |
| About 98.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Telecomunicaes Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.5 M |
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Technical Analysis
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Telecomunicaes Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Telecomunicaes Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras Predictive Forecast Models
Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' time-series forecasting models is one of many Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Telecomunicaes Brasileiras
Checking the ongoing alerts about Telecomunicaes Brasileiras for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Telecomunicaes Brasileiras help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Telecomunicaes Brasileiras has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 285.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (126.82 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (224.27 M). | |
| About 98.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Telecomunicaes Stock Analysis
When running Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' price analysis, check to measure Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telecomunicaes Brasileiras is operating at the current time. Most of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telecomunicaes Brasileiras' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telecomunicaes Brasileiras to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.