Thurgauer Kantonalbank (Switzerland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 120.71
| TKBP Stock | CHF 126.50 2.00 1.61% |
Thurgauer |
Thurgauer Kantonalbank Target Price Odds to finish below 120.71
The tendency of Thurgauer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to ₣ 120.71 or more in 90 days |
| 126.50 | 90 days | 120.71 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thurgauer Kantonalbank to drop to ₣ 120.71 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Thurgauer Kantonalbank probability density function shows the probability of Thurgauer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thurgauer Kantonalbank price to stay between ₣ 120.71 and its current price of ₣126.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Thurgauer Kantonalbank has a beta of -0.17. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Thurgauer Kantonalbank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Thurgauer Kantonalbank is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Thurgauer Kantonalbank has an alpha of 0.0168, implying that it can generate a 0.0168 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thurgauer Kantonalbank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thurgauer Kantonalbank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thurgauer Kantonalbank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Thurgauer Kantonalbank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thurgauer Kantonalbank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thurgauer Kantonalbank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thurgauer Kantonalbank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thurgauer Kantonalbank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Thurgauer Kantonalbank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thurgauer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thurgauer Kantonalbank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thurgauer Kantonalbank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Thurgauer Kantonalbank Technical Analysis
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thurgauer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thurgauer Kantonalbank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thurgauer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thurgauer Kantonalbank Predictive Forecast Models
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thurgauer Kantonalbank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thurgauer Kantonalbank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Thurgauer Kantonalbank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Thurgauer Kantonalbank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Thurgauer Kantonalbank options trading.
Additional Tools for Thurgauer Stock Analysis
When running Thurgauer Kantonalbank's price analysis, check to measure Thurgauer Kantonalbank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thurgauer Kantonalbank is operating at the current time. Most of Thurgauer Kantonalbank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thurgauer Kantonalbank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thurgauer Kantonalbank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thurgauer Kantonalbank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.