Trisul SA (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.76
| TRIS3 Stock | BRL 4.49 0.01 0.22% |
Trisul |
Trisul SA Target Price Odds to finish below 4.76
The tendency of Trisul Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 4.76 after 90 days |
| 4.49 | 90 days | 4.76 | about 10.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trisul SA to stay under R$ 4.76 after 90 days from now is about 10.33 (This Trisul SA probability density function shows the probability of Trisul Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trisul SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 4.49 and R$ 4.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trisul SA has a beta of 0.66. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Trisul SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Trisul SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Trisul SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Trisul SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trisul SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trisul SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trisul SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trisul SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trisul SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trisul SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trisul SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Trisul SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trisul SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trisul SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trisul SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trisul SA has accumulated about 379.58 M in cash with (83.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.08. | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Trisul SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trisul Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trisul SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trisul SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 182.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 387.5 M |
Trisul SA Technical Analysis
Trisul SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trisul Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trisul SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trisul Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trisul SA Predictive Forecast Models
Trisul SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trisul SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trisul SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trisul SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trisul SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trisul SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trisul SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trisul SA has accumulated about 379.58 M in cash with (83.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.08. | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Trisul Stock Analysis
When running Trisul SA's price analysis, check to measure Trisul SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trisul SA is operating at the current time. Most of Trisul SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trisul SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trisul SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trisul SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.