COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 89.89

202795JD3   89.89  3.31  3.55%   
COMMONWEALTH's future price is the expected price of COMMONWEALTH instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out COMMONWEALTH Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, COMMONWEALTH Correlation, COMMONWEALTH Hype Analysis, COMMONWEALTH Volatility, COMMONWEALTH History as well as COMMONWEALTH Performance.
  
Please specify COMMONWEALTH's target price for which you would like COMMONWEALTH odds to be computed.

COMMONWEALTH Target Price Odds to finish over 89.89

The tendency of COMMONWEALTH Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 89.89 90 days 89.89 
about 81.56
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COMMONWEALTH to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 81.56 (This COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 probability density function shows the probability of COMMONWEALTH Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 has a beta of -0.0944. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding COMMONWEALTH are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 has an alpha of 0.0128, implying that it can generate a 0.0128 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   COMMONWEALTH Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for COMMONWEALTH

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COMMONWEALTH EDISON. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
88.7989.8990.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.1976.2998.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
90.3191.4192.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
88.0690.8393.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as COMMONWEALTH. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against COMMONWEALTH's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, COMMONWEALTH's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in COMMONWEALTH EDISON.

COMMONWEALTH Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COMMONWEALTH is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COMMONWEALTH's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COMMONWEALTH within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.09
σ
Overall volatility
2.27
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

COMMONWEALTH Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COMMONWEALTH for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COMMONWEALTH EDISON can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COMMONWEALTH EDISON generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

COMMONWEALTH Technical Analysis

COMMONWEALTH's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COMMONWEALTH Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47. In general, you should focus on analyzing COMMONWEALTH Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

COMMONWEALTH Predictive Forecast Models

COMMONWEALTH's time-series forecasting models is one of many COMMONWEALTH's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COMMONWEALTH's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about COMMONWEALTH EDISON

Checking the ongoing alerts about COMMONWEALTH for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COMMONWEALTH EDISON help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COMMONWEALTH EDISON generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in COMMONWEALTH Bond

COMMONWEALTH financial ratios help investors to determine whether COMMONWEALTH Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COMMONWEALTH with respect to the benefits of owning COMMONWEALTH security.