COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 88.95
| 202795JD3 | 89.89 3.31 3.55% |
COMMONWEALTH |
COMMONWEALTH Target Price Odds to finish below 88.95
The tendency of COMMONWEALTH Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 88.95 or more in 90 days |
| 89.89 | 90 days | 88.95 | about 9.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COMMONWEALTH to drop to 88.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.28 (This COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 probability density function shows the probability of COMMONWEALTH Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COMMONWEALTH EDISON price to stay between 88.95 and its current price of 89.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 has a beta of -0.0944. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding COMMONWEALTH are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47 has an alpha of 0.0128, implying that it can generate a 0.0128 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). COMMONWEALTH Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for COMMONWEALTH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COMMONWEALTH EDISON. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.COMMONWEALTH Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COMMONWEALTH is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COMMONWEALTH's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COMMONWEALTH within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
COMMONWEALTH Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COMMONWEALTH for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COMMONWEALTH EDISON can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| COMMONWEALTH EDISON generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
COMMONWEALTH Technical Analysis
COMMONWEALTH's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COMMONWEALTH Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COMMONWEALTH EDISON 47. In general, you should focus on analyzing COMMONWEALTH Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
COMMONWEALTH Predictive Forecast Models
COMMONWEALTH's time-series forecasting models is one of many COMMONWEALTH's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COMMONWEALTH's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about COMMONWEALTH EDISON
Checking the ongoing alerts about COMMONWEALTH for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COMMONWEALTH EDISON help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| COMMONWEALTH EDISON generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in COMMONWEALTH Bond
COMMONWEALTH financial ratios help investors to determine whether COMMONWEALTH Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COMMONWEALTH with respect to the benefits of owning COMMONWEALTH security.