Viceroy Hotels (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 121.08

VHLTD Stock   128.03  1.24  0.98%   
Viceroy Hotels' future price is the expected price of Viceroy Hotels instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Viceroy Hotels Limited performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Viceroy Hotels Backtesting, Viceroy Hotels Valuation, Viceroy Hotels Correlation, Viceroy Hotels Hype Analysis, Viceroy Hotels Volatility, Viceroy Hotels History as well as Viceroy Hotels Performance.
  
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Viceroy Hotels Target Price Odds to finish below 121.08

The tendency of Viceroy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  121.08  or more in 90 days
 128.03 90 days 121.08 
about 17.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Viceroy Hotels to drop to  121.08  or more in 90 days from now is about 17.46 (This Viceroy Hotels Limited probability density function shows the probability of Viceroy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Viceroy Hotels price to stay between  121.08  and its current price of 128.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.18 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Viceroy Hotels has a beta of 0.19. This entails as returns on the market go up, Viceroy Hotels average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Viceroy Hotels Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Viceroy Hotels Limited has an alpha of 0.1555, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Viceroy Hotels Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Viceroy Hotels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Viceroy Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Viceroy Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
126.63129.77132.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
104.31107.45140.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
121.81124.95128.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
122.98128.41133.84
Details

Viceroy Hotels Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Viceroy Hotels is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Viceroy Hotels' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Viceroy Hotels Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Viceroy Hotels within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.19
σ
Overall volatility
7.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Viceroy Hotels Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Viceroy Hotels for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Viceroy Hotels can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Viceroy Hotels had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Viceroy Hotels Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals - Simply Wall St

Viceroy Hotels Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Viceroy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Viceroy Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Viceroy Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding52.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments304.4 M

Viceroy Hotels Technical Analysis

Viceroy Hotels' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Viceroy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Viceroy Hotels Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Viceroy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Viceroy Hotels Predictive Forecast Models

Viceroy Hotels' time-series forecasting models is one of many Viceroy Hotels' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Viceroy Hotels' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Viceroy Hotels

Checking the ongoing alerts about Viceroy Hotels for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Viceroy Hotels help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Viceroy Hotels had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Viceroy Hotels Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals - Simply Wall St

Other Information on Investing in Viceroy Stock

Viceroy Hotels financial ratios help investors to determine whether Viceroy Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Viceroy with respect to the benefits of owning Viceroy Hotels security.