Potbelly Co Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| PBPB Stock | USD 10.20 0.12 1.19% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Potbelly Co is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Potbelly buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Potbelly positions.
Check out Potbelly Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Potbelly and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Potbelly Co. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
Potbelly |
Execute Potbelly Buy or Sell Advice
The Potbelly recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Potbelly Co. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Potbelly Co or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Potbelly's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Somewhat reliable | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Excited | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Potbelly Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Potbelly had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Potbelly Co currently holds 186.99 M in liabilities. Potbelly has a current ratio of 0.38, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Potbelly's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: I ordered the same turkey sandwich from Subway and Potbelly Sandwich Shop, and I preferred the cheaper option |
Potbelly Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Potbelly's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Potbelly's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Potbelly daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Potbelly Co price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Potbelly returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Potbelly.
| Mean Return | 0.46 | Value At Risk | -3.01 | Potential Upside | 4.24 | Standard Deviation | 3.44 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Potbelly historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Potbelly Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 502.8 K | State Street Corp | 2024-06-30 | 491.9 K | Silvercrest Asset Management Group Llc | 2024-06-30 | 486.9 K | Ancora Advisors Llc | 2024-06-30 | 451.2 K | Western Standard Llc | 2024-09-30 | 400.8 K | Millennium Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 307.7 K | Hodges Capital Management Inc | 2024-06-30 | 293.6 K | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2024-06-30 | 218.7 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 217.7 K | Nierenberg Investment Management Co | 2024-09-30 | 3 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 1.9 M |
Potbelly Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 9K | 484K | (502K) | (499K) | 177K | 185.9K | |
| Change In Cash | (969K) | (7.7M) | 3.2M | 1.3M | 18.9M | 19.9M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 3.8M | (22.5M) | (13.9M) | 4.1M | 2.4M | 2.6M | |
| Depreciation | 22.1M | 19.8M | 15.9M | 11.9M | 12.1M | 14.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 30.9M | 36.7M | 30.7M | 19.5M | 25.4M | 15.5M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 14.4M | 10.9M | 9.0M | 8.4M | 17.1M | 16.9M | |
| Net Income | (23.6M) | (65.7M) | (23.6M) | 4.7M | 5.6M | 5.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 18.8M | 11.1M | 14.4M | 15.6M | 34.5M | 23.1M | |
| Change Receivables | 480K | (35K) | (1.7M) | (387K) | (348.3K) | (365.7K) | |
| Net Borrowings | (189K) | 5.7M | 3.4M | (1.5M) | (1.7M) | (1.6M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 513K | 580K | 584K | 1.3M | 1.2M | 1.1M | |
| Change To Netincome | 16.1M | 3.2M | 2.5M | (6.6M) | (6.0M) | (5.7M) | |
| Investments | (14.4M) | (10.9M) | (9.0M) | (8.4M) | (14.4M) | (15.1M) |
Potbelly Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Potbelly or Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Potbelly's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Potbelly stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Potbelly Volatility Alert
Potbelly Co has relatively low volatility with skewness of 3.42 and kurtosis of 17.77. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Potbelly's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Potbelly's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Potbelly Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Potbelly's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Potbelly's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Potbelly and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Potbelly or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Potbelly's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Potbelly by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Potbelly to competition |
| Fundamentals | Potbelly | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 1.26 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0372 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.08 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.04 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 447.5 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.94 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 14.99 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 78.38 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 605.88 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 161.88 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 5.71 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.65 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 491.41 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 126.19 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 21.9 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 5.58 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 9.51 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.33 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 186.99 M | 5.32 B |
| Current Ratio | 0.39 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 1.77 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 19.49 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.54 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.26 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.90 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 15.33 | |
| Number Of Employees | 5 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.21 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 305.36 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 252.46 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (333.8 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (17.99 M) | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 49.78 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Disposition of 537 shares by Robert Wright of Potbelly at 7.38 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Potbelly Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Potbelly . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Potbelly Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Potbelly Co? Buying financial instruments such as Potbelly Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Potbelly Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Potbelly. If investors know Potbelly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Potbelly listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.4 | Earnings Share 1.26 | Revenue Per Share 15.884 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets 0.0372 |
The market value of Potbelly is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Potbelly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Potbelly's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Potbelly's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Potbelly's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Potbelly's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Potbelly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Potbelly is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Potbelly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.