United Fire Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| UFCS Stock | USD 30.60 0.68 2.27% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding United Fire Group is 'Strong Buy'. A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell United Fire Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards United Fire. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for United Fire Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out United Fire Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as United and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. United Fire Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.
United |
Execute United Fire Buy or Sell Advice
The United recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on United Fire Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in United Fire Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute United Fire's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
United Fire Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| United Fire Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| United Fire Group currently holds 50 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. United Fire Group has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about United Fire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.1 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.27 M. | |
| United Fire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 66.0% of United Fire outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: United Fire Group s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross |
United Fire Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of United Fire's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of United Fire's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of United Fire daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use United Fire Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of United Fire returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for United Fire.
| Mean Return | 0.68 | Value At Risk | -2.44 | Potential Upside | 4.67 | Standard Deviation | 3.62 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of United Fire historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
United Stock Institutional Investors
The United Fire's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase United Fire's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-06-30 | 236.7 K | Millennium Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 234.2 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 217.4 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-06-30 | 204.5 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-06-30 | 193.3 K | Envestnet Asset Management Inc | 2024-09-30 | 186.9 K | Foundry Partners, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 178.2 K | Wells Fargo & Co | 2024-06-30 | 173 K | Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 146.2 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 3.6 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 1.3 M |
United Fire Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 56.3M | (32.8M) | 44.2M | (35.5M) | 5.4M | 5.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 61.3M | 22.6M | 15.9M | (3.4M) | 160.9M | 168.9M | |
| Depreciation | 11.2M | 6.7M | 6.6M | 7.7M | 10.5M | 11.0M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (43.0M) | 130.7M | 4.6M | 54.3M | 121.6M | 127.7M | |
| Dividends Paid | 32.7M | 28.5M | 15.1M | 15.9M | 16.2M | 17.4M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 32.4M | 18.9M | 14.0M | 2.1M | 10.9M | 13.4M | |
| Net Income | 14.8M | (112.7M) | 80.6M | 15.0M | (29.7M) | (28.2M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 120.7M | 87.9M | 132.1M | 96.7M | 102.0M | 110.4M | |
| Change To Netincome | 78.9M | 115.3M | (50.7M) | 53.2M | 47.9M | 66.5M | |
| Investments | 36.9M | (74.0M) | 45.7M | (19.2M) | (145.5M) | (138.2M) |
United Fire Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to United Fire or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that United Fire's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a United stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
United Fire Volatility Alert
United Fire Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of 4.47 and kurtosis of 27.32. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure United Fire's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact United Fire's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.United Fire Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing United Fire's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze United Fire's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between United Fire and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as United Fire or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of United Fire's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Fire by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare United Fire to competition |
| Fundamentals | United Fire | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0701 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0128 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.04 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.09 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 695.11 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.34 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 18.23 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 65.77 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 423.79 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 11.71 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.99 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.64 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.1 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 15.27 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (25.95 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (29.7 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 92.21 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.66 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 50 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.06 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.32 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 31.01 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 171.74 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.16 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.95 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.90 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 26.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 852 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.38 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 775.47 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 3.14 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 574.69 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % |
Note: Acquisition by Kevin Leidwinger of 9095 shares of United Fire at 19.86 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
United Fire Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as United . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About United Fire Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell United Fire Group? Buying financial instruments such as United Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having United Fire in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Oil And Gas Thematic Idea Now
Oil And Gas
Companies involved in drilling, production, and distribution of oil and gas pipelines. The Oil And Gas theme has 42 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Oil And Gas Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.