Antofagasta PLC Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ANFGF Stock  USD 22.11  0.58  2.56%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Antofagasta PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 22.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.39. Antofagasta Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Antofagasta PLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Antofagasta PLC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Antofagasta PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Antofagasta PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Antofagasta PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 22.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Antofagasta Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Antofagasta PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Antofagasta PLC Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Antofagasta PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Antofagasta PLC's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Antofagasta PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.93 and 26.04, respectively. We have considered Antofagasta PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.11
22.99
Expected Value
26.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Antofagasta PLC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Antofagasta PLC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.408
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6514
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0277
SAESum of the absolute errors40.3865
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Antofagasta PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Antofagasta PLC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Antofagasta PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Antofagasta PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.0522.1125.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.9025.4528.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Antofagasta PLC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Antofagasta PLC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Antofagasta PLC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Antofagasta PLC.

Other Forecasting Options for Antofagasta PLC

For every potential investor in Antofagasta, whether a beginner or expert, Antofagasta PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Antofagasta Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Antofagasta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Antofagasta PLC's price trends.

Antofagasta PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Antofagasta PLC pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Antofagasta PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Antofagasta PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Antofagasta PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Antofagasta PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Antofagasta PLC's current price.

Antofagasta PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Antofagasta PLC pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Antofagasta PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Antofagasta PLC pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Antofagasta PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Antofagasta PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of Antofagasta PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Antofagasta PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting antofagasta pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Antofagasta Pink Sheet

Antofagasta PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Antofagasta Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Antofagasta with respect to the benefits of owning Antofagasta PLC security.