Elma Electronic Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ELMN Stock  CHF 1,050  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elma Electronic AG on the next trading day is expected to be 1,049 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 508.45. Elma Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Elma Electronic is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Elma Electronic AG value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Elma Electronic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elma Electronic AG on the next trading day is expected to be 1,049 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.34, mean absolute percentage error of 95.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 508.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elma Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elma Electronic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Elma Electronic Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elma Electronic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elma Electronic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.672
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation8.3353
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0082
SAESum of the absolute errors508.4539
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Elma Electronic AG. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Elma Electronic. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Elma Electronic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elma Electronic AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,0491,0501,051
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
960.61961.391,155
Details

Elma Electronic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elma Electronic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elma Electronic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elma Electronic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Elma Electronic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elma Electronic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elma Electronic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elma Electronic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elma Electronic AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Elma Electronic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Elma Electronic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elma Electronic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elma stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Elma Stock Analysis

When running Elma Electronic's price analysis, check to measure Elma Electronic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elma Electronic is operating at the current time. Most of Elma Electronic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elma Electronic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elma Electronic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elma Electronic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.