Nasdaq 100 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Nasdaq 100 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nasdaq 100 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Nasdaq 100 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 22,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 174.89, mean absolute percentage error of 52,208, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,668.

Nasdaq 100 Index Forecast Pattern

Nasdaq 100 Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nasdaq 100 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nasdaq 100 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Nasdaq 100. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Nasdaq 100. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Nasdaq 100

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nasdaq 100. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Nasdaq 100

For every potential investor in Nasdaq, whether a beginner or expert, Nasdaq 100's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nasdaq Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nasdaq. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nasdaq 100's price trends.

Nasdaq 100 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Nasdaq 100 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nasdaq 100's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nasdaq 100's current price.

Nasdaq 100 Market Strength Events

Nasdaq 100 Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.