Agilon Health Stock Price Prediction
| AGL Stock | USD 2.18 0.01 0.46% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.951 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.32) | Wall Street Target Price 3.6267 |
Using Agilon Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of agilon health from the perspective of Agilon Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agilon Health using Agilon Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agilon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agilon Health's stock price.
Agilon Health Implied Volatility | 1.26 |
Agilon Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of agilon health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agilon Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agilon Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agilon Health's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Agilon Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Agilon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Agilon Health after-hype prediction price | USD 2.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Agilon |
Agilon Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agilon Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agilon Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agilon Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agilon Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agilon Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agilon Health's historical news coverage. Agilon Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 9.94, respectively. We have considered Agilon Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agilon Health is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of agilon health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agilon Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agilon Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agilon Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agilon Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 7.77 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 8 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.18 | 2.17 | 0.46 |
|
Agilon Health Hype Timeline
On the 9th of December agilon health is traded for 2.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Agilon is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Agilon Health is about 3273.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.09. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. agilon health has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.19. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.76. The firm last dividend was issued on the February 17, 2016. Agilon Health had 2:1 split on the December 4, 1995. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Agilon Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Agilon Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agilon Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agilon Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Agilon Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agilon Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Agilon Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agilon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agilon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agilon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Agilon Health Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Agilon Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as agilon health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Agilon Health based on analysis of Agilon Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Agilon Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Agilon Health's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 14.92 | 4.39 | 4.17 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 1.49 | 1.34 | 1.41 |
Story Coverage note for Agilon Health
The number of cover stories for Agilon Health depends on current market conditions and Agilon Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agilon Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agilon Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Agilon Health Short Properties
Agilon Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agilon Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of agilon health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agilon Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilon Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 408.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 488.3 M |
Check out Agilon Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Agilon Stock please use our How to buy in Agilon Stock guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilon Health. If investors know Agilon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilon Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.951 | Earnings Share (0.76) | Revenue Per Share 13.717 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.276 | Return On Assets (0.1) |
The market value of agilon health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilon Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilon Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilon Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilon Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilon Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilon Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilon Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.