Alarum Technologies Stock Price Prediction
| ALAR Stock | 11.59 0.56 4.61% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.07 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.09 | Wall Street Target Price 29.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.05 |
Using Alarum Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alarum Technologies from the perspective of Alarum Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alarum Technologies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alarum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alarum Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 11.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alarum |
Alarum Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alarum Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alarum Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alarum Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alarum Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alarum Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alarum Technologies' historical news coverage. Alarum Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.65 and 19.31, respectively. We have considered Alarum Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alarum Technologies is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alarum Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alarum Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alarum Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alarum Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alarum Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 7.83 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.59 | 11.48 | 0.95 |
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Alarum Technologies Hype Timeline
Alarum Technologies is presently traded for 11.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Alarum is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.48. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.95%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Alarum Technologies is about 960.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.36. The book value of the company was presently reported as 0.22. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of June 2018. Alarum Technologies had 1:10 split on the 8th of November 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Alarum Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alarum Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alarum Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alarum Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Alarum Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alarum Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVTC | Evertec | 1.06 | 12 per month | 1.39 | (0.01) | 2.24 | (2.30) | 8.27 | |
| NTCT | NetScout Systems | (0.57) | 12 per month | 1.53 | 0.09 | 3.29 | (2.71) | 10.97 | |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International | 0.54 | 10 per month | 0.92 | 0.08 | 2.64 | (1.69) | 11.25 | |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings | (1.07) | 11 per month | 1.67 | (0.0002) | 2.52 | (2.63) | 10.92 | |
| RPD | Rapid7 Inc | (0.30) | 9 per month | 1.51 | 0.06 | 4.23 | (2.36) | 11.05 | |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software | (4.55) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.09 | 3.46 | (2.86) | 8.13 |
Alarum Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alarum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alarum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alarum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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About Alarum Technologies Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alarum Technologies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alarum Technologies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alarum Technologies based on analysis of Alarum Technologies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alarum Technologies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alarum Technologies's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Graham Number | 3.12 | 2.0 | 1.01 | 0.96 | Receivables Turnover | 6.87 | 10.49 | 11.08 | 11.64 |
Story Coverage note for Alarum Technologies
The number of cover stories for Alarum Technologies depends on current market conditions and Alarum Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alarum Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alarum Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alarum Technologies Short Properties
Alarum Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Alarum Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alarum Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alarum Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alarum Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.9 M |
Additional Tools for Alarum Stock Analysis
When running Alarum Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Alarum Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alarum Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Alarum Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alarum Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alarum Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alarum Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.