Canadian National Railway Stock Price Prediction
| CNI Stock | USD 109.16 1.96 1.76% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.018 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.3624 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.2882 | Wall Street Target Price 174.1987 |
Using Canadian National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canadian National Railway from the perspective of Canadian National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Canadian National using Canadian National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Canadian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Canadian National's stock price.
Canadian National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Canadian National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Canadian. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Canadian National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 120.1748 | Short Percent 0.0085 | Short Ratio 1.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 112.384 |
Canadian National Railway Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Canadian National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Canadian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Canadian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Canadian National Railway. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Canadian National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Canadian National.
Canadian National Implied Volatility | 0.0922 |
Canadian National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Canadian National Railway stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Canadian National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Canadian National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Canadian National's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Canadian National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Canadian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Canadian National after-hype prediction price | USD 109.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Canadian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Canadian National Railway will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.005763% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Canadian National trading at USD 109.16, that is roughly USD 0.00629 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Canadian National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Canadian National Railway options at the current volatility level of 0.0922%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Canadian |
Canadian National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canadian National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canadian National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canadian National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canadian National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canadian National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canadian National's historical news coverage. Canadian National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 107.97 and 110.27, respectively. We have considered Canadian National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canadian National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canadian National Railway is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canadian National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canadian National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canadian National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canadian National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.15 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
109.16 | 109.12 | 0.04 |
|
Canadian National Hype Timeline
On the 4th of December Canadian National Railway is traded for 109.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Canadian is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 109.12. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Canadian National is about 189.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 109.22. About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Canadian National was currently reported as 30.95. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.03. Canadian National Railway last dividend was issued on the 9th of December 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of December 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Canadian National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Canadian National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canadian National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canadian National's future price movements. Getting to know how Canadian National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canadian National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UNP | Union Pacific | 4.95 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.03 | (2.01) | 8.64 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | 0.60 | 11 per month | 0.59 | 0.13 | 2.14 | (1.07) | 5.07 | |
| TRN | Trinity Industries | (0.91) | 9 per month | 1.79 | 0.05 | 2.85 | (3.25) | 11.92 | |
| GBX | Greenbrier Companies | 0.24 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.17 | 3.46 | (2.32) | 19.01 | |
| FSTR | LB Foster | (1.84) | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.17 | 6.37 | (3.40) | 14.55 |
Canadian National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canadian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canadian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canadian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Canadian National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Canadian National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Canadian National Railway, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Canadian National based on analysis of Canadian National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Canadian National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Canadian National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0158 | 0.0182 | 0.0189 | 0.0122 | Price To Sales Ratio | 7.6 | 6.45 | 6.51 | 6.83 |
Story Coverage note for Canadian National
The number of cover stories for Canadian National depends on current market conditions and Canadian National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canadian National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canadian National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Canadian National Short Properties
Canadian National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canadian National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canadian National Railway often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canadian National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 659.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 475 M |
Complementary Tools for Canadian Stock analysis
When running Canadian National's price analysis, check to measure Canadian National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian National is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities |