Chevron Corp Stock Price Prediction
| CVX Stock | USD 162.11 0.42 0.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
67
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.444 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.3328 | Wall Street Target Price 172.5826 |
Using Chevron Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chevron Corp from the perspective of Chevron Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chevron Corp using Chevron Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chevron using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chevron Corp's stock price.
Chevron Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Chevron Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Chevron Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Chevron Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 153.9027 | Short Percent 0.033 | Short Ratio 9.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 53.9 M | 50 Day MA 151.945 |
Chevron Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Chevron Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chevron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chevron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chevron Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chevron Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chevron Corp.
Chevron Corp Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Chevron Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Chevron Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chevron Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chevron Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chevron Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Chevron Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Chevron because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Chevron Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 162.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chevron contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Chevron Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2024-11-29 option contract. With Chevron Corp trading at USD 162.11, that is roughly USD 0.0679 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chevron Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Chevron Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Chevron |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chevron Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chevron Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chevron Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chevron Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chevron Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chevron Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chevron Corp's historical news coverage. Chevron Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 161.17 and 163.53, respectively. We have considered Chevron Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chevron Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chevron Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chevron Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chevron Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chevron Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chevron Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.19 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
162.11 | 162.35 | 0.15 |
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Chevron Corp Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November Chevron Corp is traded for 162.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Chevron is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 162.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 83.8%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Chevron Corp is about 276.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 162.04. The company reported the last year's revenue of 196.91 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 21.41 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 98.89 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Chevron Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Chevron Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chevron Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chevron Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Chevron Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chevron Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BP | BP PLC ADR | (0.19) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.68 | (3.34) | 7.70 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.42 | (2.79) | 5.88 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.92 | (2.53) | 6.04 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | (0.19) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.17 | (2.75) | 8.68 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | (0.37) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.62 | (2.57) | 7.40 | |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | 1.15 | 7 per month | 1.34 | (0.09) | 2.10 | (2.09) | 5.74 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.04 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.30 | (4.50) | 8.46 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.57 | (3.60) | 7.99 | |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | (5.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.68 | (2.70) | 9.51 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | (0.03) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.27 | (2.81) | 5.66 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (0.31) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.46 | (3.86) | 8.46 | |
| YPF | YPF Sociedad Anonima | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.34 | 5.61 | (2.51) | 10.08 |
Chevron Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chevron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chevron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chevron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Chevron Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Chevron Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Chevron Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Chevron Corp based on analysis of Chevron Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Chevron Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Chevron Corp's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0453 | 0.0316 | 0.0404 | 0.0295 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.42 | 0.85 |
Story Coverage note for Chevron Corp
The number of cover stories for Chevron Corp depends on current market conditions and Chevron Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chevron Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chevron Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Chevron Corp Short Properties
Chevron Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chevron Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chevron Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chevron Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chevron Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.2 B |
Additional Tools for Chevron Stock Analysis
When running Chevron Corp's price analysis, check to measure Chevron Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chevron Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Chevron Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chevron Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chevron Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chevron Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.