Etsy Inc Stock Price Prediction
| ETSY Stock | USD 55.13 0.31 0.56% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.97 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2725 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6307 | Wall Street Target Price 62.3333 |
Using Etsy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Etsy Inc from the perspective of Etsy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Etsy Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Etsy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Etsy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Etsy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Etsy Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Etsy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Etsy.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Etsy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Etsy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Etsy after-hype prediction price | USD 55.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Etsy |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Etsy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Etsy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Etsy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Etsy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Etsy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Etsy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Etsy's historical news coverage. Etsy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.55 and 57.67, respectively. We have considered Etsy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Etsy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Etsy Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Etsy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Etsy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Etsy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Etsy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.56 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
55.13 | 55.11 | 0.04 |
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Etsy Hype Timeline
Etsy Inc is currently traded for 55.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Etsy is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 111.79%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Etsy is about 42666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.13. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35. Etsy Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Etsy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Etsy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Etsy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Etsy's future price movements. Getting to know how Etsy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Etsy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PDD | PDD Holdings | 2.06 | 11 per month | 3.22 | (0) | 8.03 | (5.75) | 24.21 | |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | (1.39) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.24 | (3.81) | 16.74 | |
| SE | Sea | (0.64) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.15 | 4.65 | (2.83) | 14.60 | |
| W | Wayfair | (0.73) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.72 | (6.26) | 19.49 | |
| CHWY | Chewy Inc | 0.73 | 9 per month | 2.18 | 0.08 | 5.10 | (3.45) | 16.46 |
Etsy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Etsy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Etsy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Etsy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Etsy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Etsy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Etsy Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Etsy based on analysis of Etsy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Etsy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Etsy's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Graham Number | 20.77 | 23.06 | 15.83 | 16.63 | Receivables Turnover | 9.41 | 9.8 | 9.47 | 7.6 |
Story Coverage note for Etsy
The number of cover stories for Etsy depends on current market conditions and Etsy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Etsy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Etsy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Etsy Short Properties
Etsy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Etsy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Etsy Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Etsy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etsy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 140.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for Etsy Stock Analysis
When running Etsy's price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.