Vail Resorts Stock Price Prediction
| MTN Stock | USD 181.00 4.15 2.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.166 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.49 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.33 | Wall Street Target Price 195.4167 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (4.25) |
Using Vail Resorts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vail Resorts from the perspective of Vail Resorts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Vail Resorts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vail Resorts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vail. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vail can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vail Resorts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vail Resorts' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vail Resorts.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vail Resorts to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vail because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vail Resorts after-hype prediction price | USD 181.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Vail |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vail Resorts After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vail Resorts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vail Resorts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vail Resorts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vail Resorts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vail Resorts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vail Resorts' historical news coverage. Vail Resorts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.23 and 182.77, respectively. We have considered Vail Resorts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vail Resorts is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vail Resorts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vail Resorts Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vail Resorts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vail Resorts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vail Resorts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
181.00 | 181.00 | 0.00 |
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Vail Resorts Hype Timeline
On the 4th of December Vail Resorts is traded for 181.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Vail is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vail Resorts is about 465.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.00. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.0. Vail Resorts recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of October 2024. The firm had 1:1 split on the 6th of November 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Vail Resorts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vail Resorts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vail Resorts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vail Resorts' future price movements. Getting to know how Vail Resorts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vail Resorts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VAC | Marriot Vacations Worldwide | 1.97 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.13 | 4.78 | (3.21) | 15.31 | |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.76 | 0.09 | 5.30 | (3.44) | 15.57 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | 0.43 | 8 per month | 0.91 | 0.06 | 1.79 | (1.82) | 8.48 | |
| MSC | Studio City International | 0.08 | 10 per month | 4.04 | 0.04 | 8.94 | (6.51) | 29.65 | |
| HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | (0.76) | 7 per month | 1.97 | 0.01 | 3.51 | (3.03) | 12.58 | |
| PLYA | Playa Hotels Resorts | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.16 | 3.23 | (2.00) | 9.17 | |
| GDEN | Golden Entertainment | 1.01 | 9 per month | 1.62 | (0.02) | 3.76 | (2.62) | 9.03 | |
| BALY | Ballys Corp | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.11 | (0.19) | 0.69 | (0.41) | 1.32 | |
| CNTY | Century Casinos | 0.20 | 7 per month | 2.85 | 0.17 | 7.30 | (5.23) | 19.96 | |
| MLCO | Melco Resorts Entertainment | 0.11 | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.09 | 5.17 | (4.28) | 22.74 | |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts | 1.07 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.92 | (3.93) | 12.47 |
Vail Resorts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vail price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vail using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vail charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vail Resorts Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vail Resorts stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vail Resorts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vail Resorts based on analysis of Vail Resorts hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vail Resorts's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vail Resorts's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0337 | 0.047 | 0.0493 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.23 | 2.39 | 1.93 |
Story Coverage note for Vail Resorts
The number of cover stories for Vail Resorts depends on current market conditions and Vail Resorts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vail Resorts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vail Resorts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vail Resorts Short Properties
Vail Resorts' future price predictability will typically decrease when Vail Resorts' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vail Resorts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vail Resorts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vail Resorts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 322.8 M |
Check out Vail Resorts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vail Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vail Resorts. If investors know Vail will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vail Resorts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.166 | Dividend Share 8.56 | Earnings Share 6.07 | Revenue Per Share 76.191 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Vail Resorts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vail that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vail Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vail Resorts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vail Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vail Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vail Resorts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vail Resorts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vail Resorts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.