National Cinemedia Stock Price Prediction
| NCMI Stock | USD 6.86 0.06 0.88% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.26 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.25 | Wall Street Target Price 8.0625 |
Using National CineMedia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National CineMedia from the perspective of National CineMedia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National CineMedia to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
National CineMedia after-hype prediction price | USD 6.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
National |
National CineMedia After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National CineMedia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National CineMedia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National CineMedia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National CineMedia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National CineMedia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National CineMedia's historical news coverage. National CineMedia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.59 and 9.11, respectively. We have considered National CineMedia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National CineMedia is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National CineMedia is based on 3 months time horizon.
National CineMedia Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National CineMedia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National CineMedia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National CineMedia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.26 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.86 | 6.85 | 0.15 |
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National CineMedia Hype Timeline
National CineMedia is now traded for 6.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. National is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on National CineMedia is about 544.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.87. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.67. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National CineMedia recorded a loss per share of 7.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of August 2022. The firm had 1:10 split on the 4th of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out National CineMedia Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.National CineMedia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National CineMedia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National CineMedia's future price movements. Getting to know how National CineMedia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National CineMedia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MMDDF | Mirriad Advertising plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 49.21 | |
| INEOF | INEO Tech Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 79.58 | |
| KDOZF | Kidoz Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 21.02 | 0.18 | 175.00 | (60.00) | 422.73 | |
| MCHX | Marchex | 0.10 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.21 | (5.14) | 16.97 | |
| SNIPF | Snipp Interactive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.76 | (0.01) | 10.88 | (9.29) | 43.58 | |
| CYGIY | CyberAgent ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | (0.95) | 25.57 | |
| TZOO | Travelzoo | (0.94) | 11 per month | 2.44 | 0.18 | 12.85 | (4.06) | 20.89 | |
| EEX | Emerald Expositions Events | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.44 | (7.44) | 36.80 | |
| ZD | Ziff Davis | 5.22 | 9 per month | 2.00 | 0.08 | 3.26 | (3.72) | 19.49 | |
| DRCT | Direct Digital Holdings | (0.38) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.40 | (16.56) | 55.53 |
National CineMedia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About National CineMedia Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of National CineMedia stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National CineMedia, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National CineMedia based on analysis of National CineMedia hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National CineMedia's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National CineMedia's related companies. | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0946 | 0.002417 | 0.11 | 0.1 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.27 | 1.25 | 3.2 | 2.21 |
Story Coverage note for National CineMedia
The number of cover stories for National CineMedia depends on current market conditions and National CineMedia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National CineMedia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National CineMedia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
National CineMedia Short Properties
National CineMedia's future price predictability will typically decrease when National CineMedia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National CineMedia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National CineMedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National CineMedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.6 M |
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National CineMedia's price analysis, check to measure National CineMedia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National CineMedia is operating at the current time. Most of National CineMedia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National CineMedia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National CineMedia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National CineMedia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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