Alcoa Corp Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AA Stock | USD 45.88 1.54 3.25% |
Alcoa | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Alcoa Corp Company chance of distress Analysis
Alcoa Corp's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Alcoa Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 13% |
Most of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alcoa Corp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alcoa Corp probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alcoa Corp odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alcoa Corp financial health.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (1.56) | Revenue Per Share 57.238 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Alcoa Corp is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Alcoa Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Alcoa Corp's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Alcoa Corp's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Alcoa Corp's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Alcoa Corp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 13.0%. This is 70.68% lower than that of the Metals & Mining sector and 67.54% lower than that of the Materials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 67.36% higher than that of the company.
Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Alcoa Corp is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Alcoa Corp Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.0583) | (9.42E-4) | 0.0286 | 0.003998 | (0.046) | (0.0437) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.58 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.11 | 0.0816 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.008151 | 0.007743 | |
| Net Debt | 921M | 1.0B | 52M | 503M | 971M | 498.9M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 2.6B | 2.8B | 3.2B | 3.0B | 3.0B | 3.2B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 6.2B | 7.1B | 5.5B | 5.2B | 5.3B | 5.9B | |
| Total Assets | 14.6B | 14.9B | 15.0B | 14.8B | 14.2B | 12.7B | |
| Total Current Assets | 3.5B | 4.5B | 5.0B | 5.3B | 4.4B | 4.4B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 686M | 394M | 920M | 822M | 91M | 86.5M |
Alcoa Corp ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Alcoa Corp's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Alcoa Corp's managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Alcoa Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0714 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0186 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.03) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.09 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 13.82 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 258.36 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.75 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 69.63 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 8.78 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 9.32 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 2.32 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.11 X | ||||
| Revenue | 10.55 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 2.31 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 155 M | ||||
| Net Income | (773 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.36 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 8.09 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1.92 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.26 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.81 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 20.32 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 91 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 1.90 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.56) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (0.29) X | ||||
| Target Price | 47.43 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 13.6 K | ||||
| Beta | 2.42 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 12.25 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 14.15 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (1.29 B) | ||||
| Working Capital | 1.38 B | ||||
| Current Asset | 2.57 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 2.4 B | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.01 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 14.15 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.4 |
About Alcoa Corp Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alcoa Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alcoa Corp using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
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Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (1.56) | Revenue Per Share 57.238 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.