United Parcel (UK) Market Value

0R08 Stock   129.02  1.09  0.84%   
United Parcel's market value is the price at which a share of United Parcel trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of United Parcel Service investors about its performance. United Parcel is selling for under 129.02 as of the 11th of December 2024; that is 0.84 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 128.96.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of United Parcel Service and determine expected loss or profit from investing in United Parcel over a given investment horizon. Check out United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Volatility and United Parcel Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on United Parcel.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Parcel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

United Parcel 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Parcel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Parcel.
0.00
09/12/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 1 day
12/11/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in United Parcel on September 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Parcel Service or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Parcel over 90 days. United Parcel is related to or competes with Leroy Seafood, Bell Food, Austevoll Seafood, Jacquet Metal, Cornish Metals, AMG Advanced, and Panther Metals. United Parcel is entity of United Kingdom More

United Parcel Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Parcel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Parcel Service upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

United Parcel Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Parcel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Parcel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Parcel historical prices to predict the future United Parcel's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
128.49129.92131.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
108.48109.91143.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
123.28124.72126.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
124.80132.03139.25
Details

United Parcel Service Backtested Returns

Currently, United Parcel Service is very steady. United Parcel Service owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0305, which indicates the firm had a 0.0305% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for United Parcel Service, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate United Parcel's Coefficient Of Variation of 3617.99, semi deviation of 1.39, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0249 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0436%. United Parcel has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.31, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, United Parcel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding United Parcel is expected to be smaller as well. United Parcel Service right now has a risk of 1.43%. Please validate United Parcel market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if United Parcel will be following its existing price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.11  

Insignificant reverse predictability

United Parcel Service has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Parcel time series from 12th of September 2024 to 27th of October 2024 and 27th of October 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Parcel Service price movement. The serial correlation of -0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current United Parcel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.11
Spearman Rank Test-0.16
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance6.93

United Parcel Service lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is United Parcel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Parcel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Parcel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Parcel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

United Parcel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Parcel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Parcel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Parcel stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

United Parcel Lagged Returns

When evaluating United Parcel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Parcel stock have on its future price. United Parcel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Parcel autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Parcel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Parcel Service.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis

When running United Parcel's price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.