China Times (Taiwan) Market Value
| 8923 Stock | TWD 18.00 0.55 2.96% |
| Symbol | China |
China Times 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Times' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Times.
| 05/06/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Times on May 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Times Publishing or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Times over 210 days. China Times is related to or competes with Fubon MSCI, YuantaP Shares, YuantaP Shares, and YuantaP Shares. More
China Times Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Times' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Times Publishing upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.68 |
China Times Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Times' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Times' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Times historical prices to predict the future China Times' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.90) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3055 |
China Times Publishing Backtested Returns
China Times Publishing secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0123, which signifies that the company had a -0.0123% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. China Times Publishing exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm China Times' Standard Deviation of 4.34, risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Mean Deviation of 2.77 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning China Times are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, China Times is likely to outperform the market. At this point, China Times Publishing has a negative expected return of -0.053%. Please make sure to confirm China Times' mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if China Times Publishing performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.09 |
Very weak reverse predictability
China Times Publishing has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Times time series from 6th of May 2024 to 19th of August 2024 and 19th of August 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Times Publishing price movement. The serial correlation of -0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current China Times price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.71 |
China Times Publishing lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Times stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Times' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Times returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Times has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Times regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Times stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Times stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Times stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Times Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Times' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Times stock have on its future price. China Times autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Times autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Times stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Times Publishing.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with China Times
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Times position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Times will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Times could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Times when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Times - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Times Publishing to buy it.
The correlation of China Times is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Times moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Times Publishing moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Times can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Times' price analysis, check to measure China Times' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Times is operating at the current time. Most of China Times' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Times' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Times' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Times to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.