Americafirst Monthly Risk On Fund Market Value
| ABRUX Fund | USD 14.47 0.23 1.62% |
| Symbol | Americafirst |
Americafirst Monthly 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Americafirst Monthly's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Americafirst Monthly.
| 04/27/2024 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Americafirst Monthly on April 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Americafirst Monthly Risk On or generate 0.0% return on investment in Americafirst Monthly over 240 days. Americafirst Monthly is related to or competes with Americafirst Large, Americafirst Large, Americafirst Large, Americafirst Tactical, Americafirst Tactical, and Americafirst Income. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily through long positions in global equity markets and U.S More
Americafirst Monthly Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Americafirst Monthly's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Americafirst Monthly Risk On upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0747 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.14 |
Americafirst Monthly Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Americafirst Monthly's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Americafirst Monthly's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Americafirst Monthly historical prices to predict the future Americafirst Monthly's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0827 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0928 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0829 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.076 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0999 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Americafirst Monthly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Americafirst Monthly Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Americafirst Mutual Fund to be very steady. Americafirst Monthly secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which signifies that the fund had a 0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Americafirst Monthly Risk On, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Americafirst Monthly's mean deviation of 0.9772, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0827 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.2, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Americafirst Monthly will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Americafirst Monthly Risk On has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Americafirst Monthly time series from 27th of April 2024 to 25th of August 2024 and 25th of August 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Americafirst Monthly price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current Americafirst Monthly price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.62 |
Americafirst Monthly lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Americafirst Monthly mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Americafirst Monthly's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Americafirst Monthly returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Americafirst Monthly has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Monthly regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Americafirst Monthly mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Americafirst Monthly mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Americafirst Monthly mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Americafirst Monthly Lagged Returns
When evaluating Americafirst Monthly's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Americafirst Monthly mutual fund have on its future price. Americafirst Monthly autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Americafirst Monthly autocorrelation shows the relationship between Americafirst Monthly mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Americafirst Monthly Risk On.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Americafirst Mutual Fund
Americafirst Monthly financial ratios help investors to determine whether Americafirst Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Americafirst with respect to the benefits of owning Americafirst Monthly security.
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation |