Polychem Indonesia (Indonesia) Market Value
| ADMG Stock | IDR 114.00 1.00 0.87% |
| Symbol | Polychem |
Polychem Indonesia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polychem Indonesia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polychem Indonesia.
| 11/15/2024 |
| 12/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polychem Indonesia on November 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polychem Indonesia Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polychem Indonesia over 30 days. Polychem Indonesia is related to or competes with Gajah Tunggal, Astra Graphia, Citra Marga, Sentul City, and Mnc Investama. Polychem Indonesia Tbk engages in the chemical and polyester businesses More
Polychem Indonesia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polychem Indonesia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polychem Indonesia Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.52 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.71) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.4 |
Polychem Indonesia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polychem Indonesia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polychem Indonesia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polychem Indonesia historical prices to predict the future Polychem Indonesia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.39) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.63) |
Polychem Indonesia Tbk Backtested Returns
Polychem Indonesia Tbk maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.12, which implies the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Polychem Indonesia Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Polychem Indonesia's Coefficient Of Variation of (818.35), risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Variance of 2.35 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of 0.31, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Polychem Indonesia's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Polychem Indonesia is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Polychem Indonesia Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.18%. Please make sure to check Polychem Indonesia's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Polychem Indonesia Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
Polychem Indonesia Tbk has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polychem Indonesia time series from 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024 and 30th of November 2024 to 15th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polychem Indonesia Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Polychem Indonesia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.72 |
Polychem Indonesia Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polychem Indonesia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polychem Indonesia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polychem Indonesia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polychem Indonesia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polychem Indonesia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polychem Indonesia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polychem Indonesia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polychem Indonesia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polychem Indonesia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polychem Indonesia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polychem Indonesia stock have on its future price. Polychem Indonesia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polychem Indonesia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polychem Indonesia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polychem Indonesia Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Polychem Indonesia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Polychem Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Polychem with respect to the benefits of owning Polychem Indonesia security.