ADX (Poland) Market Value
| ADX Stock | 0.28 0.01 3.70% |
| Symbol | ADX |
ADX 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ADX's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ADX.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ADX on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ADX or generate 0.0% return on investment in ADX over 30 days. ADX is related to or competes with Asseco Business, Movie Games, Igoria Trade, and Bank Millennium. More
ADX Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ADX's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ADX upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.25 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.67) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.69 |
ADX Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ADX's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ADX's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ADX historical prices to predict the future ADX's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0106 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1074 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.78) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ADX Backtested Returns
ADX secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0042, which signifies that the company had a -0.0042% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. ADX exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm ADX's risk adjusted performance of 0.0106, and Mean Deviation of 2.78 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.9, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning ADX are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, ADX is expected to outperform it slightly. At this point, ADX has a negative expected return of -0.0141%. Please make sure to confirm ADX's value at risk and the relationship between the expected short fall and market facilitation index , to decide if ADX performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | 0.03 |
Virtually no predictability
ADX has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ADX time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ADX price movement. The serial correlation of 0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current ADX price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
ADX lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ADX stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ADX's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ADX returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ADX has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ADX regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ADX stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ADX stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ADX stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ADX Lagged Returns
When evaluating ADX's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ADX stock have on its future price. ADX autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ADX autocorrelation shows the relationship between ADX stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ADX.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with ADX
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ADX position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ADX will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against ADX Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ADX could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ADX when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ADX - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ADX to buy it.
The correlation of ADX is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ADX moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ADX moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ADX can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for ADX Stock Analysis
When running ADX's price analysis, check to measure ADX's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADX is operating at the current time. Most of ADX's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADX's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADX's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADX to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.