AFRICAN DISTILLERS (Zimbabwe) Market Value
| AFDS Stock | 691.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | AFRICAN |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AFRICAN DISTILLERS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AFRICAN DISTILLERS.
| 05/31/2024 |
| 12/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AFRICAN DISTILLERS on May 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AFRICAN DISTILLERS LIMITED or generate 0.0% return on investment in AFRICAN DISTILLERS over 210 days.
AFRICAN DISTILLERS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AFRICAN DISTILLERS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AFRICAN DISTILLERS LIMITED upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0025 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 29.67 | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1449 |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AFRICAN DISTILLERS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AFRICAN DISTILLERS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AFRICAN DISTILLERS historical prices to predict the future AFRICAN DISTILLERS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.017 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0201 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0632 |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider AFRICAN Stock to be very steady. AFRICAN DISTILLERS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0121, which signifies that the company had a 0.0121% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found seventeen technical indicators for AFRICAN DISTILLERS LIMITED, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm AFRICAN DISTILLERS's mean deviation of 0.9138, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.017 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0435%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.49, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, AFRICAN DISTILLERS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding AFRICAN DISTILLERS is expected to be smaller as well. AFRICAN DISTILLERS now shows a risk of 3.61%. Please confirm AFRICAN DISTILLERS potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if AFRICAN DISTILLERS will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.43 |
Average predictability
AFRICAN DISTILLERS LIMITED has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AFRICAN DISTILLERS time series from 31st of May 2024 to 13th of September 2024 and 13th of September 2024 to 27th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AFRICAN DISTILLERS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current AFRICAN DISTILLERS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3257.57 |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AFRICAN DISTILLERS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AFRICAN DISTILLERS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AFRICAN DISTILLERS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AFRICAN DISTILLERS Lagged Returns
When evaluating AFRICAN DISTILLERS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock have on its future price. AFRICAN DISTILLERS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AFRICAN DISTILLERS autocorrelation shows the relationship between AFRICAN DISTILLERS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AFRICAN DISTILLERS LIMITED.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running AFRICAN DISTILLERS's price analysis, check to measure AFRICAN DISTILLERS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AFRICAN DISTILLERS is operating at the current time. Most of AFRICAN DISTILLERS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AFRICAN DISTILLERS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AFRICAN DISTILLERS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AFRICAN DISTILLERS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.