Ariel Focus Fund Market Value

AFOYX Fund  USD 17.91  0.10  0.56%   
Ariel Focus' market value is the price at which a share of Ariel Focus trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Ariel Focus Fund investors about its performance. Ariel Focus is trading at 17.91 as of the 5th of December 2024; that is 0.56 percent down since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 18.01.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Ariel Focus Fund and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Ariel Focus over a given investment horizon. Check out Ariel Focus Correlation, Ariel Focus Volatility and Ariel Focus Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ariel Focus.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Ariel Focus' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ariel Focus is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ariel Focus' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Ariel Focus 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ariel Focus' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ariel Focus.
0.00
12/16/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 21 days
12/05/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Ariel Focus on December 16, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ariel Focus Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ariel Focus over 720 days. Ariel Focus is related to or competes with Ariel Fund, Ariel Global, Ariel International, Ariel International, and Ariel Appreciation. The fund invests primarily in equity securities of companies of any size in order to provide investors access to superio... More

Ariel Focus Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ariel Focus' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ariel Focus Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Ariel Focus Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ariel Focus' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ariel Focus' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ariel Focus historical prices to predict the future Ariel Focus' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ariel Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.9917.9418.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.7517.7018.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.0217.9718.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.6617.8818.11
Details

Ariel Focus Fund Backtested Returns

At this stage we consider Ariel Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ariel Focus Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the fund had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Ariel Focus Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Ariel Focus' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0909, downside deviation of 0.748, and Mean Deviation of 0.7034 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.065, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ariel Focus' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ariel Focus is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.54  

Good reverse predictability

Ariel Focus Fund has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ariel Focus time series from 16th of December 2022 to 11th of December 2023 and 11th of December 2023 to 5th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ariel Focus Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Ariel Focus price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.54
Spearman Rank Test-0.47
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.18

Ariel Focus Fund lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Ariel Focus mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ariel Focus' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ariel Focus returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ariel Focus has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Ariel Focus regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ariel Focus mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ariel Focus mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ariel Focus mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Ariel Focus Lagged Returns

When evaluating Ariel Focus' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ariel Focus mutual fund have on its future price. Ariel Focus autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ariel Focus autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ariel Focus mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ariel Focus Fund.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in Ariel Mutual Fund

Ariel Focus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariel with respect to the benefits of owning Ariel Focus security.
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