Air China Ltd Stock Market Value
| AIRYY Stock | USD 13.41 0.63 4.93% |
| Symbol | Air |
Air China 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Air China's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Air China.
| 05/06/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Air China on May 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Air China Ltd or generate 0.0% return on investment in Air China over 210 days. Air China is related to or competes with Singapore Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Qantas Airways, Copa Holdings, United Airlines, Delta Air, and SkyWest. Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Ma... More
Air China Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Air China's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Air China Ltd upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1429 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.85) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.75 |
Air China Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Air China's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Air China's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Air China historical prices to predict the future Air China's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1443 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6308 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0342 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1315 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.65 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air China Backtested Returns
Air China appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Air China secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Air China's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.79% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Air China's Mean Deviation of 2.51, downside deviation of 4.23, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1443 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Air China holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.41, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Air China's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Air China is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Air China's semi variance, day median price, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to make a quick decision on whether Air China's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.83 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Air China Ltd has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Air China time series from 6th of May 2024 to 19th of August 2024 and 19th of August 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Air China price movement. The serial correlation of -0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Air China price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.38 |
Air China lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Air China pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Air China's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Air China returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Air China has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Air China regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Air China pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Air China pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Air China pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Air China Lagged Returns
When evaluating Air China's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Air China pink sheet have on its future price. Air China autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Air China autocorrelation shows the relationship between Air China pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Air China Ltd.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Air Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Air China's price analysis, check to measure Air China's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air China is operating at the current time. Most of Air China's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air China's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air China's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air China to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.