Cogelec SA (France) Market Value
| ALLEC Stock | EUR 15.10 0.40 2.58% |
| Symbol | Cogelec |
Cogelec SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cogelec SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cogelec SA.
| 01/02/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Cogelec SA on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Cogelec SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Cogelec SA over 720 days. Cogelec SA is related to or competes with Ekinops SA, Damartex, Graines Voltz, Riber SA, and Abionyx Pharma. Cogelec SA engages in the manufacture and sale of wireless intercom systems and access control solutions for residential... More
Cogelec SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cogelec SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cogelec SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.186 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.07 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.03 |
Cogelec SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cogelec SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cogelec SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cogelec SA historical prices to predict the future Cogelec SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1657 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4085 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3531 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2007 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.82 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cogelec SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cogelec SA Backtested Returns
Cogelec SA appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Cogelec SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.22, which signifies that the company had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Cogelec SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Cogelec SA's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1657, mean deviation of 1.52, and Downside Deviation of 1.94 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Cogelec SA holds a performance score of 16. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.15, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Cogelec SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Cogelec SA is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Cogelec SA's maximum drawdown, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to make a quick decision on whether Cogelec SA's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.57 |
Modest predictability
Cogelec SA has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cogelec SA time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cogelec SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current Cogelec SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.57 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 8.48 |
Cogelec SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cogelec SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cogelec SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cogelec SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cogelec SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Cogelec SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cogelec SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cogelec SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cogelec SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Cogelec SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cogelec SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cogelec SA stock have on its future price. Cogelec SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cogelec SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cogelec SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cogelec SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Cogelec Stock Analysis
When running Cogelec SA's price analysis, check to measure Cogelec SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogelec SA is operating at the current time. Most of Cogelec SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogelec SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogelec SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogelec SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.