Sumber Alfaria (Indonesia) Market Value
| AMRT Stock | IDR 2,900 30.00 1.05% |
| Symbol | Sumber |
Sumber Alfaria 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Sumber Alfaria's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Sumber Alfaria.
| 11/04/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Sumber Alfaria on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Sumber Alfaria Trijaya or generate 0.0% return on investment in Sumber Alfaria over 30 days. Sumber Alfaria is related to or competes with Astra International, Unilever Indonesia, Telkom Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, and Perusahaan Gas. More
Sumber Alfaria Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Sumber Alfaria's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Sumber Alfaria Trijaya upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.21 |
Sumber Alfaria Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Sumber Alfaria's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Sumber Alfaria's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Sumber Alfaria historical prices to predict the future Sumber Alfaria's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0134 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0421 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.25) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Backtested Returns
As of now, Sumber Stock is very steady. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0126, which indicates the firm had a 0.0126% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Sumber Alfaria's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0134, coefficient of variation of 10404.29, and Semi Deviation of 1.94 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0248%. The entity has a beta of -0.32, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Sumber Alfaria are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Sumber Alfaria is likely to outperform the market. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya right now has a risk of 1.98%. Please validate Sumber Alfaria coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Sumber Alfaria will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.48 |
Average predictability
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Sumber Alfaria time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya price movement. The serial correlation of 0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Sumber Alfaria price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1323.97 |
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Sumber Alfaria stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Sumber Alfaria's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Sumber Alfaria returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Sumber Alfaria has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Sumber Alfaria regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Sumber Alfaria stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Sumber Alfaria stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Sumber Alfaria stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Sumber Alfaria Lagged Returns
When evaluating Sumber Alfaria's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Sumber Alfaria stock have on its future price. Sumber Alfaria autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Sumber Alfaria autocorrelation shows the relationship between Sumber Alfaria stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Sumber Alfaria Trijaya.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Sumber Alfaria financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Alfaria security.