Aristocrat Leisure Limited Stock Market Value
| ARLUF Stock | USD 46.34 1.79 4.02% |
| Symbol | Aristocrat |
Aristocrat Leisure 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aristocrat Leisure's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aristocrat Leisure.
| 11/04/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aristocrat Leisure on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aristocrat Leisure Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aristocrat Leisure over 30 days. Aristocrat Leisure is related to or competes with Amadeus IT, LAir Liquide, ASSA ABLOY, Relx PLC, and CSL. Aristocrat Leisure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, assembly, sale, distribution, an... More
Aristocrat Leisure Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aristocrat Leisure's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aristocrat Leisure Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1101 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.71 |
Aristocrat Leisure Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aristocrat Leisure's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aristocrat Leisure's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aristocrat Leisure historical prices to predict the future Aristocrat Leisure's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1224 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4383 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0329 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0741 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.42) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aristocrat Leisure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aristocrat Leisure Backtested Returns
Aristocrat Leisure appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Aristocrat Leisure secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.15, which signifies that the company had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Aristocrat Leisure Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Aristocrat Leisure's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1224, downside deviation of 4.12, and Mean Deviation of 1.62 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Aristocrat Leisure holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.29, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aristocrat Leisure are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aristocrat Leisure is likely to outperform the market. Please check Aristocrat Leisure's jensen alpha, semi variance, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Aristocrat Leisure's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.09 |
Virtually no predictability
Aristocrat Leisure Limited has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aristocrat Leisure time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aristocrat Leisure price movement. The serial correlation of 0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Aristocrat Leisure price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.16 |
Aristocrat Leisure lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aristocrat Leisure's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aristocrat Leisure returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aristocrat Leisure has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Aristocrat Leisure regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Aristocrat Leisure Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aristocrat Leisure's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet have on its future price. Aristocrat Leisure autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aristocrat Leisure autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aristocrat Leisure pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aristocrat Leisure Limited.
Regressed Prices |
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Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Aristocrat Pink Sheet
Aristocrat Leisure financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aristocrat Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aristocrat with respect to the benefits of owning Aristocrat Leisure security.