Air Transport (Germany) Market Value
| AW8 Stock | EUR 20.80 0.20 0.95% |
| Symbol | Air |
Air Transport 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Air Transport's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Air Transport.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Air Transport on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Air Transport Services or generate 0.0% return on investment in Air Transport over 30 days. Air Transport is related to or competes with Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, NorAm Drilling, Talanx AG, and Identiv. Air Transport Services Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the airfreight and logistics industry More
Air Transport Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Air Transport's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Air Transport Services upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.91 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1203 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.68 |
Air Transport Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Air Transport's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Air Transport's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Air Transport historical prices to predict the future Air Transport's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1278 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4115 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1559 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4365 |
Air Transport Services Backtested Returns
Air Transport appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Air Transport Services secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Air Transport's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.54% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Air Transport's Mean Deviation of 1.98, downside deviation of 2.91, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1278 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Air Transport holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.33, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Air Transport will likely underperform. Please check Air Transport's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Air Transport's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.10 |
Insignificant predictability
Air Transport Services has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Air Transport time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Air Transport Services price movement. The serial correlation of 0.1 indicates that less than 10.0% of current Air Transport price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.1 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Air Transport Services lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Air Transport stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Air Transport's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Air Transport returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Air Transport has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Air Transport regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Air Transport stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Air Transport stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Air Transport stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Air Transport Lagged Returns
When evaluating Air Transport's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Air Transport stock have on its future price. Air Transport autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Air Transport autocorrelation shows the relationship between Air Transport stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Air Transport Services.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Air Stock
When determining whether Air Transport Services is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Transport's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Transport's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Air Transport Correlation, Air Transport Volatility and Air Transport Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Air Transport. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Air Transport technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.