Carnival Plc (Brazil) Market Value
| C1CL34 Stock | BRL 163.26 7.58 4.87% |
| Symbol | Carnival |
Carnival Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carnival Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carnival Plc.
| 01/02/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carnival Plc on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival Plc over 720 days. Carnival Plc is related to or competes with Booking Holdings, Royal Caribbean, Expedia, Norwegian Cruise, Tripadvisor, and CVC Brasil. Carnival Corporation plc operates as a leisure travel company More
Carnival Plc Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carnival Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carnival plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2706 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.51 |
Carnival Plc Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carnival Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carnival Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carnival Plc historical prices to predict the future Carnival Plc's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2308 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7466 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.6829 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.307 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.33 |
Carnival plc Backtested Returns
Carnival Plc appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Carnival plc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.27, which signifies that the company had a 0.27% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Carnival Plc's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.74% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Carnival Plc's Mean Deviation of 1.97, downside deviation of 2.4, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2308 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Carnival Plc holds a performance score of 21. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Carnival Plc's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Carnival Plc is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Carnival Plc's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Carnival Plc's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.52 |
Modest predictability
Carnival plc has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival Plc time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival plc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Carnival Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 604.89 |
Carnival plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carnival Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carnival Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carnival Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carnival Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carnival Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carnival Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carnival Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carnival Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carnival Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carnival Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carnival Plc stock have on its future price. Carnival Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carnival Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carnival Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carnival plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Carnival Stock
Carnival Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether Carnival Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Carnival with respect to the benefits of owning Carnival Plc security.