Churchill Downs (Germany) Market Value
| CHR Stock | 134.00 1.00 0.75% |
| Symbol | Churchill |
Churchill Downs 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Churchill Downs' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Churchill Downs.
| 11/04/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Churchill Downs on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Churchill Downs Incorporated or generate 0.0% return on investment in Churchill Downs over 30 days. Churchill Downs is related to or competes with Lendlease, MUTUIONLINE, WisdomTree Investments, Carsales, United Rentals, and CapitaLand Investment. More
Churchill Downs Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Churchill Downs' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Churchill Downs Incorporated upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0186 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.46 |
Churchill Downs Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Churchill Downs' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Churchill Downs' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Churchill Downs historical prices to predict the future Churchill Downs' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0712 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1295 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0213 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.76 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs Backtested Returns
Currently, Churchill Downs Incorporated is very steady. Churchill Downs secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.073, which signifies that the company had a 0.073% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Churchill Downs Incorporated, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Churchill Downs' Downside Deviation of 1.46, risk adjusted performance of 0.0712, and Mean Deviation of 1.15 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. Churchill Downs has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0487, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Churchill Downs' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Churchill Downs is expected to be smaller as well. Churchill Downs right now shows a risk of 1.66%. Please confirm Churchill Downs expected short fall, day median price, and the relationship between the potential upside and accumulation distribution , to decide if Churchill Downs will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
Churchill Downs Incorporated has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Churchill Downs time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Churchill Downs price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Churchill Downs price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.08 |
Churchill Downs lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Churchill Downs stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Churchill Downs' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Churchill Downs returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Churchill Downs has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Churchill Downs regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Churchill Downs stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Churchill Downs stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Churchill Downs stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Churchill Downs Lagged Returns
When evaluating Churchill Downs' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Churchill Downs stock have on its future price. Churchill Downs autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Churchill Downs autocorrelation shows the relationship between Churchill Downs stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Churchill Downs Incorporated.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Churchill Stock Analysis
When running Churchill Downs' price analysis, check to measure Churchill Downs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Churchill Downs is operating at the current time. Most of Churchill Downs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Churchill Downs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Churchill Downs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Churchill Downs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.