Ceylon Tobacco (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| CTCN0000 | LKR 1,317 17.25 1.33% |
| Symbol | Ceylon |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ceylon Tobacco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ceylon Tobacco is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ceylon Tobacco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Ceylon Tobacco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ceylon Tobacco's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ceylon Tobacco.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ceylon Tobacco on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ceylon Tobacco or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ceylon Tobacco over 30 days. More
Ceylon Tobacco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ceylon Tobacco's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ceylon Tobacco upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9398 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.069 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.44 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.83) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.11 |
Ceylon Tobacco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ceylon Tobacco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ceylon Tobacco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ceylon Tobacco historical prices to predict the future Ceylon Tobacco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1439 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1875 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0264 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0723 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.10) |
Ceylon Tobacco Backtested Returns
At this point, Ceylon Tobacco is very steady. Ceylon Tobacco secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.23, which signifies that the company had a 0.23% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Ceylon Tobacco, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Ceylon Tobacco's Downside Deviation of 0.9398, risk adjusted performance of 0.1439, and Mean Deviation of 0.6734 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Ceylon Tobacco has a performance score of 17 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0445, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ceylon Tobacco are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ceylon Tobacco is likely to outperform the market. Ceylon Tobacco right now shows a risk of 0.83%. Please confirm Ceylon Tobacco value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Ceylon Tobacco will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Ceylon Tobacco has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ceylon Tobacco time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ceylon Tobacco price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Ceylon Tobacco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 256.21 |
Ceylon Tobacco lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ceylon Tobacco stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ceylon Tobacco's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ceylon Tobacco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ceylon Tobacco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ceylon Tobacco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ceylon Tobacco stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ceylon Tobacco stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ceylon Tobacco stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ceylon Tobacco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ceylon Tobacco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ceylon Tobacco stock have on its future price. Ceylon Tobacco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ceylon Tobacco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ceylon Tobacco stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ceylon Tobacco.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Ceylon Tobacco financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ceylon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ceylon with respect to the benefits of owning Ceylon Tobacco security.