Darma Henwa (Indonesia) Market Value
| DEWA Stock | IDR 106.00 8.00 7.02% |
| Symbol | Darma |
Darma Henwa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Darma Henwa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Darma Henwa.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Darma Henwa on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Darma Henwa Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Darma Henwa over 30 days. Darma Henwa is related to or competes with Bakrieland Development, Energi Mega, Bakrie Brothers, Bakrie Sumatera, and Bumi Resources. More
Darma Henwa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Darma Henwa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Darma Henwa Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.44 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1298 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.34 |
Darma Henwa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Darma Henwa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Darma Henwa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Darma Henwa historical prices to predict the future Darma Henwa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1274 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.8339 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1572 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (12.41) |
Darma Henwa Tbk Backtested Returns
Darma Henwa appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Darma Henwa Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which denotes the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Darma Henwa's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.85% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Darma Henwa's Coefficient Of Variation of 643.53, downside deviation of 4.44, and Mean Deviation of 4.05 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Darma Henwa holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0665, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Darma Henwa are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Darma Henwa is likely to outperform the market. Please check Darma Henwa's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Darma Henwa's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.86 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Darma Henwa Tbk has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Darma Henwa time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Darma Henwa Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Darma Henwa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 33.6 |
Darma Henwa Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Darma Henwa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Darma Henwa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Darma Henwa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Darma Henwa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Darma Henwa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Darma Henwa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Darma Henwa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Darma Henwa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Darma Henwa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Darma Henwa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Darma Henwa stock have on its future price. Darma Henwa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Darma Henwa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Darma Henwa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Darma Henwa Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Darma Henwa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Darma Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Darma with respect to the benefits of owning Darma Henwa security.