Develia SA (Poland) Market Value
| DVL Stock | 5.93 0.01 0.17% |
| Symbol | Develia |
Develia SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Develia SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Develia SA.
| 12/15/2022 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Develia SA on December 15, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Develia SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Develia SA over 720 days. Develia SA is related to or competes with Dom Development, KCI SA, and Tower Investments. More
Develia SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Develia SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Develia SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0156 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.07 |
Develia SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Develia SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Develia SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Develia SA historical prices to predict the future Develia SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.053 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0715 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0197 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2071 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Develia SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Develia SA Backtested Returns
Develia SA appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Develia SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0952, which denotes the company had a 0.0952% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Develia SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Develia SA's Downside Deviation of 2.01, mean deviation of 1.65, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1657.2 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Develia SA holds a performance score of 7. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.69, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Develia SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Develia SA is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Develia SA's expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Develia SA's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.61 |
Good predictability
Develia SA has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Develia SA time series from 15th of December 2022 to 10th of December 2023 and 10th of December 2023 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Develia SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Develia SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.33 |
Develia SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Develia SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Develia SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Develia SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Develia SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Develia SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Develia SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Develia SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Develia SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Develia SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Develia SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Develia SA stock have on its future price. Develia SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Develia SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Develia SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Develia SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Develia SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Develia SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Develia SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Develia Stock
Moving against Develia Stock
| 0.5 | TOW | Tower Investments | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | MIL | Bank Millennium SA | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | BHW | Bank Handlowy w | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | PKN | Polski Koncern Naftowy | PairCorr |
| 0.32 | MBK | mBank SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Develia SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Develia SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Develia SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Develia SA to buy it.
The correlation of Develia SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Develia SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Develia SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Develia SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Develia Stock Analysis
When running Develia SA's price analysis, check to measure Develia SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Develia SA is operating at the current time. Most of Develia SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Develia SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Develia SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Develia SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.