First National Bank Stock Market Value

FBAK Stock  USD 224.99  4.74  2.15%   
First National's market value is the price at which a share of First National trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of First National Bank investors about its performance. First National is selling for 224.99 as of the 4th of December 2024. This is a 2.15% up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's last reported lowest price was 216.0.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First National Bank and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First National over a given investment horizon. Check out First National Correlation, First National Volatility and First National Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First National.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between First National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

First National 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First National's otc stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First National.
0.00
11/04/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
12/04/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in First National on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First National Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in First National over 30 days. First National is related to or competes with IF Bancorp, LINKBANCORP, Pathfinder Bancorp, First Keystone, Citizens Financial, Home Bancorp, and First Community. First National Bank Alaska, a commercial bank, provides various banking products and services for business, industry, an... More

First National Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First National's otc stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First National Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

First National Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First National historical prices to predict the future First National's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
223.13224.99226.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
202.49234.88236.74
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
217.85219.71221.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
220.15225.01229.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First National Bank.

First National Bank Backtested Returns

First National appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. First National Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which denotes the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for First National Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First National's Coefficient Of Variation of 773.85, mean deviation of 1.28, and Downside Deviation of 2.26 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First National holds a performance score of 9. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0473, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First National is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First National's expected short fall, day median price, and the relationship between the potential upside and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether First National's price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.31  

Poor reverse predictability

First National Bank has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First National time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First National Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current First National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.31
Spearman Rank Test-0.38
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance17.72

First National Bank lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is First National otc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First National's otc stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the otc stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

First National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First National otc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First National otc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First National otc stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

First National Lagged Returns

When evaluating First National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First National otc stock have on its future price. First National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First National autocorrelation shows the relationship between First National otc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First National Bank.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in First OTC Stock

First National financial ratios help investors to determine whether First OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First National security.