First National Corp Stock Market Value
| FXNC Stock | USD 23.77 0.28 1.16% |
| Symbol | First |
First National Corp Price To Book Ratio
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First National. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.12 | Revenue Per Share 7.779 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of First National Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First National's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First National.
| 11/27/2024 |
| 12/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First National on November 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First National Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in First National over 30 days. First National is related to or competes with Home Federal, Lake Shore, Oak Valley, Community West, Magyar Bancorp, First Financial, and First Northwest. First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking ... More
First National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First National's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First National Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2159 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.91 |
First National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First National historical prices to predict the future First National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.199 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.477 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3583 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.266 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.63) |
First National Corp Backtested Returns
First National appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. First National Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.28, which denotes the company had a 0.28% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing First National's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize First National's Coefficient Of Variation of 411.23, mean deviation of 1.41, and Downside Deviation of 1.58 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First National holds a performance score of 22. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.29, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First National are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First National is likely to outperform the market. Please check First National's semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether First National's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.85 |
Excellent reverse predictability
First National Corp has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First National time series from 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024 and 12th of December 2024 to 27th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First National Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current First National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.36 |
First National Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First National stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First National's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First National stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First National stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First National stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First National Lagged Returns
When evaluating First National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First National stock have on its future price. First National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First National autocorrelation shows the relationship between First National stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First National Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether First National Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of First National's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of First National Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on First National Corp Stock:Check out First National Correlation, First National Volatility and First National Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First National. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
First National technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.