Gozco Plantations (Indonesia) Market Value
| GZCO Stock | IDR 101.00 1.00 1.00% |
| Symbol | Gozco |
Gozco Plantations 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gozco Plantations' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gozco Plantations.
| 11/15/2024 |
| 12/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gozco Plantations on November 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gozco Plantations Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gozco Plantations over 30 days. Gozco Plantations is related to or competes with Austindo Nusantara, Garudafood Putra, Provident Agro, Dharma Satya, and Sawit Sumbermas. More
Gozco Plantations Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gozco Plantations' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gozco Plantations Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.029 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.54 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.17 |
Gozco Plantations Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gozco Plantations' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gozco Plantations' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gozco Plantations historical prices to predict the future Gozco Plantations' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0589 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1959 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0324 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.38) |
Gozco Plantations Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Gozco Stock is very steady. Gozco Plantations Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0801, which attests that the entity had a 0.0801% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Gozco Plantations Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Gozco Plantations' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0589, market risk adjusted performance of (0.37), and Downside Deviation of 2.11 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Gozco Plantations has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.42, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gozco Plantations are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Gozco Plantations is likely to outperform the market. Gozco Plantations Tbk right now retains a risk of 2.38%. Please check out Gozco Plantations potential upside, semi variance, and the relationship between the value at risk and downside variance , to decide if Gozco Plantations will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.57 |
Modest predictability
Gozco Plantations Tbk has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gozco Plantations time series from 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024 and 30th of November 2024 to 15th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gozco Plantations Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current Gozco Plantations price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.57 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.06 |
Gozco Plantations Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gozco Plantations stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gozco Plantations' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gozco Plantations returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gozco Plantations has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gozco Plantations regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gozco Plantations stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gozco Plantations stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gozco Plantations stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Gozco Plantations Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gozco Plantations' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gozco Plantations stock have on its future price. Gozco Plantations autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gozco Plantations autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gozco Plantations stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gozco Plantations Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Gozco Plantations financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gozco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gozco with respect to the benefits of owning Gozco Plantations security.