TAL Education (Germany) Market Value
| IZZ Stock | 9.35 0.30 3.11% |
| Symbol | TAL |
TAL Education 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TAL Education's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TAL Education.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TAL Education on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TAL Education Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in TAL Education over 30 days. TAL Education is related to or competes with MIRAMAR HOTEL, HYATT HOTELS, Summit Hotel, CHINA EDUCATION, Wyndham Hotels, and DALATA HOTEL. More
TAL Education Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TAL Education's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TAL Education Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0926 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.14 |
TAL Education Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TAL Education's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TAL Education's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TAL Education historical prices to predict the future TAL Education's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1027 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4755 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1096 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.05 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TAL Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TAL Education Group Backtested Returns
TAL Education appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. TAL Education Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.12, which indicates the company had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By examining TAL Education's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.56% is justified by implied risk. Please review TAL Education's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1027, downside deviation of 3.77, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.06 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TAL Education holds a performance score of 9. The firm has a beta of 0.51, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, TAL Education's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TAL Education is expected to be smaller as well. Please check TAL Education's sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether TAL Education's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.4 |
Poor reverse predictability
TAL Education Group has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TAL Education time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TAL Education Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current TAL Education price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
TAL Education Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TAL Education stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TAL Education's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TAL Education returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TAL Education has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TAL Education regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TAL Education stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TAL Education stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TAL Education stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TAL Education Lagged Returns
When evaluating TAL Education's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TAL Education stock have on its future price. TAL Education autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TAL Education autocorrelation shows the relationship between TAL Education stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TAL Education Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for TAL Stock Analysis
When running TAL Education's price analysis, check to measure TAL Education's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TAL Education is operating at the current time. Most of TAL Education's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TAL Education's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TAL Education's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TAL Education to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.